Newsletter #6 – A global reality check

Monday 27 January 2025

With the inauguration of President Trump this week in the United States of America, it is a opportune time to reflect on what is going on in the world, and what it means for Australia.

A snapshot of what is going on in the world:

China plans to build 300 coal power stations [1]
Best performing economies have more coal, more growth and cheaper electricity [2]
What a data centre and AI boom could mean for energy [3]
Trump withdraws from Paris Agreement [4]
Trump provides pathway to maximize resource development in Alaska [5]
Trump places a halt on offshore wind power licences [6].
All fossil fuels grow significantly more than renewables [7]

Important Observations

USA and China are increasing fossil fuel consumption to drive economic growth and in anticipation of increased datacentre and AI demand.

There is a correlation between increased use of coal and GDP growth, and a reduction in coal consumption and declining GDP growth.

“The average GDP growth from 2015 to 2023 of these seven Asian nations was also high: Vietnam, 6%; India and China, 5.8%; the Philippines, 4.7%; Indonesia, 4.1%; Malaysia, 3.9%; and, Taiwan, 3%. In contrast, countries which have had a progressive reduction in their coal capacity from 2007 to 2023 — the US, Germany, Spain, the UK, Poland, Australia — have had low growth, except Poland with growth of 3.7% [2]

Figure 1 – Global Director Primary Energy Consumption, shows that global coal, oil and gas consumption have risen steadily over the past 25 years, despite climate agreements. Some reasons include:

The global population has increased over the past 25 years from 6.2 billion to 8.2 billion people.
It is expected the global population will peak at 10.4 billion people in the mid-2080s according to the United Nations [8].
Per-capita increase in energy consumption as a global average from 4.19t/CO2/pp in 2000 to 4.86tCO2/pp at the end of 2023 an increase of 16% [7].
Over the same period, Australia went from 18.56TCO2/pp to 14.21tCO2/pptCO2/pp a reduction of 23% [7].

(Note: tCO2/pp is an abbreviation for tonnes of CO2 emissions per person as an average).

“Physics wins. Physics always wins in the long run, and that means denser forms of energy for the most part. Now you need mixed portfolios. You have to have a lot of options and choices. Don’t mandate things away. Bad idea. But in the end, hydrogen, natural gas, nuclear drive a lot of the future with a lot of other things mixed into that portfolio.”
Scott Tinker 10 Dec 2023 [9]

There are lots of areas where a STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics) education in Australia could be used far more productively to drive low emissions technologies that have a global impact. These includes contributing to:

Nuclear fission – large scale light water reactors (LWRs)
Nuclear fission – small modular reactors (SMRs)
Nuclear fission – fast breeder reactors
Nuclear fusion
Clean coal technologies
Carbon capture and storage
Hydrogen production industry
Taking ownership of nuclear fuel production, instead of just exporting uranium
Greater responsibility for radioactive waste management (globally)
Strategy to move away from relying on coal exports, through innovation

The key to adopting a more responsible approach to reducing emissions, is as noted by Scott Tinker “Don’t mandate things away – bad idea.” [9] Our current nuclear energy bans are out of touch with this global imperative.