Monday 3rd March 2025
| In this newsletter we get a snapshot of nuclear energy around the world. We explore geopolitical issues that influence the nuclear power sector, together with uranium mining, enrichment and nuclear fuel processing. Then we examine the positions that by our closest neighbors are taking in their energy transitioning away from fossil fuel dependence. |
Let’s have a look at where Australia currently sits in addressing nuclear energy, relative to other countries that are aiming to achieve carbon reduction targets, refer to the summary in Table 1.
| Australia is the only country out of 20 in the G20 that has a ban in place preventing us developing nuclear energy [1]. | Our largest Southeast Asia neighbours are all planning to have nuclear energy from the 2030s onward [2]. | As of July 2024, there were 59 nuclear reactors under construction, 25 were in China, 5 were decommissioned [3]. |
| Australia has the world’s largest known Economic Demonstrated Resources (EDR) of uranium, based on a 2022 survey [4]. | In 2022 Australia was the world’s 4th largest producer of uranium, behind Kazakhstan, Canada and Namibia [4]. | USA is facing uranium shortages and approached Australia in Feb 2025 to expand uranium mining and processing [5]. |
Key drivers for nuclear energy
What drives different approaches to the development of nuclear energy? This has been examined by the Center for Strategic and Independent Studies (CSIS), Washington [6] where the following four key observations were made:
- Nuclear power generation projects have never been purely commercial
- The market is dominated by state-led capitalist economies
- Supplying nuclear energy creates long term ties with the recipient country
- Nuclear commerce may not be an effective tool of foreign policy leverage.
This final point from CSIS could be debated as energy ties and dependencies can help with relationship building.
Global demand for uranium [7]
A critical issue for Australia is what do we do to help other countries to decarbonize. Some critical considerations include:
- The world is experiencing a nuclear energy renaissance, with global capacity expanding and driving a significant increase in uranium demand.
- China and Russia have secured substantial uranium supplies, particularly from key producers like Kazakhstan, creating a challenge for the West.
- The United States and Europe are facing an aging nuclear infrastructure and supply chain vulnerabilities, forcing them to reconsider their strategies for securing uranium.
International Energy Agency
According to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “It’s clear today that the strong comeback for nuclear energy that the IEA predicted several years ago is well underway, with nuclear set to generate a record level of electricity in 2025,”
“In addition to this, more than 70 gigawatts of new nuclear capacity is under construction globally, one of the highest levels in the last 30 years, and more than 40 countries around the world have plans to expand nuclear’s role in their energy systems.” [8]
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
The demand for uranium will grow 28 percent by 2030 and nearly double by 2040, with far-ranging consequences for global markets [9]
Supply chain vulnerabilities and dependencies on foreign adversaries challenge U.S. leadership in the sector and create national and energy security risks.
Russia and China are rapidly expanding their offtake of mined uranium from international partners, uranium enrichment capabilities, and nuclear infrastructure.
To strengthen uranium and nuclear fuel supply chains, the United States must work with allies, implement conducive trade and tariff policies, and invest in both domestic enrichment capacity and uranium ore production abroad. [10]
Southeast Asian Trends
It’s worth noting what’s going on with our closest neighbors both from an economic perspective and in terms of geopolitical risks. Refer to Table 2 for the current status of nuclear energy for our neighbours.
| Indonesia | Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, is actively transitioning away from its fossil fuel-heavy energy mix. In 2023, fossil fuels accounted for 86% of Indonesia’s electricity generation, and coal provides 90 GW of installed capacity. Indonesia is targeting the deployment of its first small modular reactor (SMR) by 2030, followed by large-scale nuclear power plants by 2036. They have identified 29 sites for nuclear facilities, of which 20 nuclear power plants will have between 45 GW and 54 GW capacity by 2050. |
| Malaysia | Over 80% of its electricity generation is from fossil fuels, with hydropower contributing 17%., there is also one research reactor, Malaysia has a rare earth refinery in Pahang, that is largest outside China, with advanced technology to extract thorium for use as nuclear fuel. Malaysia’s goal is to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and diversify its energy mix. |
| Philippines | Coal currently dominates the country’s electricity generation at 60%, underscoring the urgency of diversifying power sources. Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) completed in 1984 was never commissioned. However, a 2022 executive order reinstated nuclear energy into the national energy policy, with a target of 1,200 MW of nuclear capacity by 2032 and 4,800 MW by 2050. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) is conducting a feasibility study on the potential recommissioning of BNPP, which could see nuclear energy integrated into the grid within five years. Meanwhile, U.S.-based NuScale Power has proposed up to $7.5 billion in SMR investments in the Philippines. |
| Vietnam | Vietnam Oil & Gas Group (Petrovietnam) is planning to construct two nuclear plants in Ninh Thuan province, each with two reactors. Vietnam has signed agreements with international partners—including Russia, Japan, South Korea, France, and the U.S.—to strengthen technical expertise and investment flows. |
| Others | Thailand is developing a regulatory framework for SMR deployment, with the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC). Singapore has entered a nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S., focusing on expertise exchange across government, industry, and research sectors. Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar are all interested in nuclear energy, as part of their long-term infrastructure and energy security strategies. |
| Japan | Japan will increase its reliance on nuclear energy in a major policy shift as it seeks to meet growing demand from power-hungry sectors like AI and semiconductors. By 2040, nuclear energy should account for 20% of Japan’s grid supply in 2040, more than double the 8.5% share in 2023. [12] |
[2] https://apnews.com/article/nuclear-energy-transition-southeast-asia-e755bebc3ded2c9e747cda45de524447
[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/513671/number-of-under-construction-nuclear-reactors-worldwide/
[7] https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Is-the-West-Losing-the-Race-for-Uranium.html
[11] https://www.nuclearbusiness-platform.com/media/insights/southeast-asia-nuclear-energy-expansion