Labor – are focused on achieving net-zero as quickly as possible with 100% renewables and interim goals such as 82% renewable energy by 2030. This involves building a grid for renewable energy with backup storage and gas for peaking loads.
Coalition – are focused on the lowest cost energy mix that their modelling shows to include nuclear and renewables. Their focus is to reduce electricity costs for households and businesses, drive the economy and meet Australia’s net-zero by 2050 obligations.
Frontier Economics (Danny Price) – Used AEMO ISP model assumptions and added in nuclear energy in stages based on coal power station closures, then solved for the least cost options.
In Table 1 we compare the analysis by AEMO and Frontier Economics on key energy issues and provide commentary on their policy differences.
Table 1: Labor and Coalition Respective Positions on Energy
| Issues | AEMO – ISP | Frontier Economics | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Electricity – generation and transmission by 2050 | $528 billion Supply $66 billion Transmission $594 billion Total | $317 billion Supply $14 billion Transmission $331 billion Total (44% cheaper) | The Coalition are focused on reducing costs to households and businesses, as key to driving economic growth. |
| Electricity – Demand by 2050 | Pursuing a high supply pathway based on AEMO ISP Step Change model will drive demand and growth 374TWh. | Propose lower supply using the AEMO Progressive Model to better balance demand and supply 277TWh. | Labor believes green energy will drive green investment, whereas Coalition believes low electricity prices will drive growth. |
| Coal baseload phasing out | Accelerated gas closures to minimize carbon emissions, without cost optimizing. . | Extended operating life of coal to minimize unnecessary costs. Timing is based on advice from coal operators. | Labor earlier coal closures mean Australians pay more for renewables, earlier, but also reduce CO2 emissions up to 2045, after this the Coalition proposal is more CO2 efficient. |
| Network Reliability | Blames coal for being unreliable, noting coal power stations are designed for smooth baseload | High fluctuations in the output from renewables, system spillage and a lack of storage, effect reliability. | Australia needs a clear direction given to coal operators as they will be essential in maintaining grid stability in the interim. |
| Grid Stability | Relies on batteries and synchronous condensers and generators added to the grid to maintain grid stability. | Coal plant turbines are replaced with similar nuclear plant turbines to provide system inertia for the grid. | The Labor plan is untested across a whole network the size of the NEM and requires added elements to maintain stability. |
| Baseload Electricity | Relies on a large grid of renewables that are phased in and out to match supply with demand. | A minimum of 65% baseload is maintained with coal transitioning to nuclear to maintain a solid based load. | Labor prefers trading in variable renewables, storage and gas firming turbines, on the NEM market, to any reliable baseload. |
| Nuclear Capacity Factor | The 0.9 factor is too high, as any adjustment to nuclear output would reduce the capacity factor. | The 0.9 factor is verified through international studies. Renewables need their own batteries or gas for stability. | Maintaining a high capacity factor is achieved by locking in fixed baseload contracts (Contracts for Difference). |
| Household solar systems | Continue the expansion of solar, and household batteries, with subsidies. | Maintain household solar and batteries, but remove subsidies, that distort costs. Also factor in replacement issues for 5 million homes. | A serious problem with excessive solar is peak rooftop solar and utility solar occur at the same time. They supply to much electricity and cause spillage. |
| Environmental Impacts | Adverse effect of extra 10,000km of transmission lines, wind turbines and solar farms are not addressed. | There is minimal adverse impact under the Coalition proposal, as added land is not required. | Loss of pristine bush is immense under the 100% renewables plan, impacting flora, fauna, and a delicate, natural environment. |
| Impact on adjacent property owners | No compensation to adjacent owners due to expanded transmission and wind turbines. | Minimal transmission grid changes and wind farms, keeps losses to a minimum. | Government rezoning with no compensation is a cost or loss to effected households. (While legal, it’s unethical). |
| Impacts on dislocated communities in coal fields. | Have proposed $1 billion to Hunter Valley to stimulate solar panel manufacturing. | Coal to nuclear transition supports local communities and provides expansion opportunities through high paying jobs. | The Labor stimulation package seems impractical, as solar panels are made in China (over 80%) with supporting industries, that don’t exist in coal towns. |