Frontier Economics : Report No. 2 December 2024

The Frontier Economics report can be found at: https://www.frontier-economics.com.au/wpcontent/uploads/2024/12/Report-2-Nuclear-power-analysis-Final-STC.pdf

Pricing of the National Electricity Network (NEM) AEMO base cases are significantly more expensive than an alternative with 38% nuclear energy and 54% renewables. Refer to Tables 9 and 10 of Frontier Economics, Report No.2, Dec 2024. 

Table 9 – Generation, network and total system costs – sum real $ billion (2025-2051)

Scenario Generating Cost ($billions)Transmission Cost ($billions)Total Cost($billions)
Step Change AEMO base case$528$66$594
   Nuclear alternative$402$44$446
Progressive AEMO base case$405$32$437
   Nuclear alternative$317$14$331

Table 10 – Generation, network and total system costs – NPV  $ billion (2025-2051)

Scenario Generating Cost ($billions)Transmission Cost ($billions)Total Cost($billions)
Step Change AEMO base case$190$35$225
   Nuclear alternative$142$21$163
Progressive AEMO base case$148$17$166
   Nuclear alternative$116$8$124

Several critical factors were overlooked in CSIRO in GenCost 2024:

  • For intermittent renewables around three times the generating capacity is needed to match baseload energy from coal or nuclear power stations.
  • A renewables grid is far bigger than a grid with nuclear electricity connected into it, particularly where transmission lines already exist.
  • Renewables + firming took a single point in time firming requirement, rather than consider how firming works within the AEMO ISP model.