C2N examines the CSIRO article “The Question of Nuclear in Australia’s Energy Sector” released 9th December 2024 with the appraisal from the findings from the Frontier Economics Report No. 2, released in December 2024.
https://www.csiro.au/en/news/all/articles/2024/december/nuclear-explainer
Nuclear power does not currently provide the most cost competitive solution for low emission electricity in Australia.
The Frontier Economics Report No.2 Dec 2024 shows the CSIRO GenCost24 Report is seriously flawed. Please refer to this report for a detailed explanation of where the wrong assumptions and comparisons have been made, and why renewables with nuclear is between 25% and 44% cheaper, than a renewables with storage and peaking gas solution for the NEM.
Long development lead times mean nuclear won’t be able to make a significant contribution to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.
Frontier Economics modelling incorporates closure dates for coal power stations and bringing nuclear power plants online to meet our net-zero 2050 obligations and maintain a stable energy grid, with 65% baseload power.
Lead times have been overstated by CSIRO based on introducing new and untested technologies such as SMRs, whereas Frontier Economics have based the energy transition on using proven, operational reactors from other countries, with established supply lines.
While nuclear technologies have a long operational life, this factor provides no unique cost advantage over shorter-lived technologies.
The cost advantage of nuclear (60 to 80 years) over shorter lived technologies, batteries (10 years), solar panels (10 to 20 years), and wind turbines (20 to 30 years), is nuclear keeps running, providing low cost energy when shorter-lived technologies need to be replaced. This provides long term financial benefits, plus it reduces waste, landfill, and abandoned infrastructure.
Nuclear projects require a long-term investment horizon and have substantial upfront costs and delay risks. This doesn’t suit investors, looking at reliable returns over a 10 to 20 year period. However, if we move to 54% renewables there will still be plenty of opportunities for investors. Coupled with this, the government can provide investment opportunities on nuclear projects, where it under-rights the risk, and provides a guaranteed return to investors. Models such as the Regulated Asset Base (RAB) funding model, recently developed for nuclear projects in the UK, could be considered in Australia.